| 28-10 17:30 |
AC Milan
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3.05 +0.55 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.00 + 1.60 + 1.25 + 1.25) / 2 = 3.05 Error: 3.05 - Goal line 2.50 = +0.55| Opponent | AC Milan | Bologna |
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| Atalanta | W 3-2 H 18-10-26 | L 0-1 A 31-08-26 | | Lecce | W 3-0 H 20-09-26 | W 2-1 A 11-10-26 | | Inter Milan | D 1-1 H 05-08-26 | L 1-3 A 04-01-26 | | Cagliari | L 1-2 H 24-05-26 | W 2-0 A 24-10-26 | | Atalanta | L 2-3 H 10-05-26 | L 0-1 A 31-08-26 | | Media de goles (F | A) | 2.00 - 1.60 | 1.25 - 1.25 |
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5 4 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | AC Milan | Bologna |
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| Atalanta | W 3-2 H 18-10-26 | L 0-1 A 31-08-26 | | Lecce | W 3-0 H 20-09-26 | W 2-1 A 11-10-26 | | Inter Milan | D 1-1 H 05-08-26 | L 1-3 A 04-01-26 | | Cagliari | L 1-2 H 24-05-26 | W 2-0 A 24-10-26 | | Atalanta | L 2-3 H 10-05-26 | L 0-1 A 31-08-26 | | Media de goles (F | A) | 2.00 - 1.60 | 1.25 - 1.25 |
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212 202 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.00 | 1.60 1.25 | 1.25 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
6.60 | 8.63 8.40 | 9.40 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
13.20 | 13.80 10.50 | 11.75 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
5.20 | 5.80 3.75 | 4.50 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
42.20 | 35.40 29.25 | 46.25 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 28-10 17:30 |
Parma
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-0.80 -0.80 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 12.78 Casa: 12.78 / ((12.00 + 12.83) / 2) = 1.03 Visitante: 12.78 / ((7.33 + 6.63) / 2) = 1.83 Diff: 1.03 - 1.83 = -0.80 Error: -0.80 + AH line 0.00 = -0.80 |
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2.80 +0.55 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.00 + 1.80 + 1.60 + 1.20) / 2 = 2.80 Error: 2.80 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.55| Opponent | Parma | Udinese |
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| Torino | L 0-3 H 19-10-26 | L 1-2 A 12-10-26 | | Genoa | W 2-1 H 20-09-26 | W 2-0 A 20-03-26 | | Monza | D 1-1 H 06-09-26 | W 3-2 A 29-08-26 | | Cagliari | L 0-1 H 22-08-26 | W 2-0 A 09-05-26 | | Roma | L 2-3 H 10-05-26 | L 0-2 A 09-11-25 | | Media de goles (F | A) | 1.00 - 1.80 | 1.60 - 1.20 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Parma | Udinese |
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| Torino | L 0-3 H 19-10-26 | L 1-2 A 12-10-26 | | Genoa | W 2-1 H 20-09-26 | W 2-0 A 20-03-26 | | Monza | D 1-1 H 06-09-26 | W 3-2 A 29-08-26 | | Cagliari | L 0-1 H 22-08-26 | W 2-0 A 09-05-26 | | Roma | L 2-3 H 10-05-26 | L 0-2 A 09-11-25 | | Media de goles (F | A) | 1.00 - 1.80 | 1.60 - 1.20 |
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113 302 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.00 | 1.80 1.60 | 1.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
12.00 | 7.33 6.63 | 12.83 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
12.00 | 13.20 10.60 | 15.40 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.60 | 5.00 4.20 | 3.60 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
38.60 | 50.00 31.80 | 46.40 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 28-10 19:45 |
Genoa
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2.60 +0.35 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.20 + 1.40 + 1.40 + 1.20) / 2 = 2.60 Error: 2.60 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.35| Opponent | Genoa | Juventus |
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| Frosinone | D 1-1 H 12-09-26 | W 1-0 A 23-08-26 | | AC Milan | L 1-2 H 17-05-26 | D 0-0 A 26-04-26 | | Sassuolo | W 2-1 H 12-04-26 | L 2-3 A 13-09-26 | | Udinese | L 0-2 H 20-03-26 | W 1-0 A 14-03-26 | | Roma | W 2-1 H 08-03-26 | D 3-3 A 01-03-26 | | Media de goles (F | A) | 1.20 - 1.40 | 1.40 - 1.20 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Genoa | Juventus |
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| Frosinone | D 1-1 H 12-09-26 | W 1-0 A 23-08-26 | | AC Milan | L 1-2 H 17-05-26 | D 0-0 A 26-04-26 | | Sassuolo | W 2-1 H 12-04-26 | L 2-3 A 13-09-26 | | Udinese | L 0-2 H 20-03-26 | W 1-0 A 14-03-26 | | Roma | W 2-1 H 08-03-26 | D 3-3 A 01-03-26 | | Media de goles (F | A) | 1.20 - 1.40 | 1.40 - 1.20 |
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212 221 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.20 | 1.40 1.40 | 1.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
11.83 | 9.00 11.00 | 7.83 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
14.20 | 12.60 15.40 | 9.40 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.20 | 4.60 6.20 | 3.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
37.40 | 39.80 57.40 | 42.20 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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