^[22] Scunthorpe 2

3 Woking ^[15]

Pregame recommendation: **Bet:** Over 2.75 Goals (Over 2.5/3.0) **Winning Probability:** 80% **Odds:** 1.83 **Reasoning:** Expected goals: Scunthorpe at home score 1.40 and concede 1.50, Woking away score 2.40 and concede 1.60, so (1.40+1.60)/2 + (2.40+1.50)/2 = 3.45 — a 0.70-goal gap above the 2.75 line (opening 2.75, now 2.5/3.0). Match history backs it: Woking have gone over 2.75 in 7 of their last 10 (2-3, 6-5, 1-3, 2-4, 2-5, 5-1, 4-1) and Scunthorpe in 6 of 10 (3-1, 6-5, 3-0, 4-1, 1-2, 2-1); the single H2H finished 2-1 (3 goals). Structural support: Woking have conceded 2+ in three of their last five, give up 5.22 shots on target per game against shared opponents, and the venue-matched mutual-opponent goal volume is 2.95, above the line; Woking's goal-line bookmaker error is also high (GL_5 1.80, GL_10 2.08) and points the same direction as the Over. Corners were skipped (no Asian Corners line/price available) and the level Asian Handicap was neutral (mutual-opponent stat split 3-2, goals NET -0.40 home vs -0.23 away).