| 07-09 22:00 |
Carabobo
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+0.35 -0.65 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 12.33 Casa: 12.33 / ((11.50 + 12.57) / 2) = 1.02 Jogando fora de casa: 12.33 / ((28.50 + 7.83) / 2) = 0.68 Diff: 1.02 - 0.68 = +0.35 Error: +0.35 + AH line -1.00 = -0.65 |
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2.10 -0.40 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.20 + 0.40 + 1.20 + 1.40) / 2 = 2.10 Error: 2.10 - Goal line 2.50 = -0.40 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
320 203 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.20 | 0.40 1.20 | 1.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
11.50 | 28.50 7.83 | 12.57 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
13.80 | 11.40 9.40 | 17.60 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
5.00 | 3.40 3.40 | 6.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
47.80 | 43.60 37.40 | 62.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 07-09 23:00 |
UCV
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2.60 +0.35 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.80 + 1.40 + 1.00 + 1.00) / 2 = 2.60 Error: 2.60 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.35 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
212 122 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.80 | 1.40 1.00 | 1.00 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
9.33 | 7.29 13.00 | 8.40 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
16.80 | 10.20 13.00 | 8.40 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
5.00 | 4.00 4.40 | 2.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
45.80 | 27.00 31.20 | 27.60 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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