| 30-08 17:15 |
Antequera
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2.10 +0.10 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.60 + 1.20 + 0.00 + 1.40) / 2 = 2.10 Error: 2.10 - Goal line 2.00 = +0.10 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
302 023 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.60 | 1.20 0.00 | 1.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
6.38 | 6.83 - | 7.29 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
10.20 | 8.20 9.20 | 10.20 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.40 | 3.40 2.40 | 4.60 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
68.80 | 65.20 50.80 | 48.60 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 30-08 17:15 |
Atletico Madrid B
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+0.45 -0.05 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 10.06 Casa: 10.06 / ((4.94 + 6.38) / 2) = 1.78 Jogando fora de casa: 10.06 / ((5.64 + 9.50) / 2) = 1.33 Diff: 1.78 - 1.33 = +0.45 Error: +0.45 + AH line -0.50 = -0.05 |
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4.10 +1.60 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (3.60 + 2.20 + 0.80 + 1.60) / 2 = 4.10 Error: 4.10 - Goal line 2.50 = +1.60 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
500 113 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
3.60 | 2.20 0.80 | 1.60 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
4.94 | 5.64 9.50 | 6.38 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
17.80 | 12.40 7.60 | 10.20 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
10.20 | 4.80 3.40 | 5.40 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
60.60 | 54.60 47.60 | 57.40 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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