| 05-09 15:30 |
MTK Budapest
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+0.62 +0.12 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios:
League avg. total shots: 10.69
Casa: 10.69 / ((2.79 + 7.00) / 2) = 2.18
Jogando fora de casa: 10.69 / ((5.43 + 8.20) / 2) = 1.57
Diff: 2.18 - 1.57 = +0.62
Error: +0.62 + AH line -0.50 = +0.12 |
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3.50 +0.50 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged:
(2.80 + 1.40 + 1.00 + 1.80) / 2 = 3.50
Error: 3.50 - Goal line 3.00 = +0.50 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
401 104 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.80 | 1.40 1.00 | 1.80 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
2.79 | 5.43 8.20 | 7.00 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
7.80 | 7.60 8.20 | 12.60 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.80 | 2.00 2.60 | 5.40 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
25.20 | 22.40 33.60 | 38.40 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 05-09 18:00 |
Paksi
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3.10 -0.40 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged:
(2.60 + 0.80 + 1.60 + 1.20) / 2 = 3.10
Error: 3.10 - Goal line 3.50 = -0.40 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
410 221 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.60 | 0.80 1.60 | 1.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
4.69 | 13.00 7.75 | 9.17 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
12.20 | 10.40 12.40 | 11.00 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
6.20 | 3.20 4.40 | 4.40 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
84.60 | 59.60 59.20 | 57.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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