| 17-05-2026 20:00 |
Quilmes |
- |
Tristan Suarez |
Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half |
79% |
Expected 1st half total 1.00 goals (Quilmes home HT avg 0.60 + Tristan Suarez away HT avg 0.60 vs conceded 0.50 and 0.30) exceeds the 1st half line of 0.75, gap +0.25. Tristan Suarez's away HT history shows 60% with at least one HT goal (3/5), Quilmes home HT history 50% (5/10). Both teams exhibit strong bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 2.05 home, 1.85 away, both >1.8 and accelerating), aligning with Over. Likelihood HT Over 0.5 at 60% supports. H2H (1 match, 0-0) neutral. Confidence: base 50% + gap +5% + away history +5% + likelihood +3% + variance +16% = 79%. |
|
| 17-05-2026 20:00 |
Quilmes |
- |
Tristan Suarez |
Over 1.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected total goals (2.05) and match potential (2.16) both exceed the line of 1.75, while bookmaker mispricing is strong (home GL_5=2.05, away GL_5=1.85, both accelerating), indicating the market systematically underrates goals in this matchup. Tristan Suarez's last three away matches all produced 3+ goals, and Quilmes averages 1.20 goals at home, supporting an Over outcome despite mixed individual team records. |
|
| 17-05-2026 21:00 |
Albion FC |
- |
Montevideo Wanderers |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 2.75 vs line 2.25, (home scoring 1.9/game, away conceding 1.5/game). Last 5 home matches for Albion 80% Over, last 5 away for Wanderers 80% Over. H2H recent 2-1 (3 goals). Structural: Albion top 4, Wanderers conceded 2+ in all 5 away matches. Bookmaker mispricing: Albion GL_5 = 2.15 (strong, accelerating). Over 2.5 at 1.95 odds. |
|
| 17-05-2026 22:00 |
Portland Thorns Women |
- |
Angel City FC Women |
|
75% |
Portland Thorns Women have covered the -0.5 handicap in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%), while Angel City FC Women have only covered in 1 of their last 5 (20%). Head-to-head also supports, with Portland winning both recent meetings by margins of +1 and +2. Portland's home form is dominant (recent 2-0 wins), and Angel City has struggled away (lost 4 of last 5 away). These structural signals point to a Portland win by at least one goal. |
|
| 17-05-2026 22:00 |
Cavalier |
- |
Montego Bay Utd |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.45 goals (Cavalier home avg 1.70, Montego Bay Utd away avg 2.50, defensive averages) exceeds the 2.5 line. Montego Bay Utd conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches, and Cavalier scored 2+ in each of last 3 home games. Montego Bay Utd's goal line variance (GL_5=2.25, accelerating) confirms significant bookmaker mispricing on the Over side. |
|
| 18-05-2026 00:00 |
Weymouth Wales |
- |
UWI Blackbirds |
Over 1.0,1.5 1st Half Goals |
81% |
Expected 1st half total of 2.20 goals significantly exceeds the 1.25 line (gap of 0.95). Home team averages 1.60 goals at home in the first half, while away team concedes 1.30 away; combined with away's 0.80 scored and home's 0.70 conceded, the model projects 2.20 goals. Home team's recent home first halves include 4 and 3 goals against Bagatelle and UWI, and away team has conceded 2+ first half goals in multiple recent away matches (including 4 against Weymouth). Likelihood data shows 80% for over 0.5 HT and 60% for over 1.5 HT, supporting over 1.25. |
|
| 18-05-2026 00:00 |
Real Koyari |
- |
SV Atlantico Deportivo |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total = (1.60+1.71)/2 + (1.43+4.00)/2 = 4.37, well above 3.0 line. Real Koyari's last 5 home matches have 80% Over 3.0 (4/5) averaging 7.6 total goals. SV Atlantico Deportivo conceded 2+ in both away matches. H2H produced 6 goals. Home GL_5=2.10 indicates strong accelerating bookmaker mispricing. Structural context: home team's defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4/5 home games) ensures high-scoring pattern. |
|
| 18-05-2026 00:30 |
Portmore United |
- |
Mount Pleasant FA |
Over 2.25 Goals |
80% |
Expected total of 2.85 goals (home avg 1.5 at home + away conceded 1.0 away vs away avg 1.9 away + home conceded 1.3 at home) exceeds the 2.25 line by 0.6. Both teams have 60% of last 10 matches going Over this line, and Mount Pleasant's accelerating market pricing error (GL_5 1.7) adds edge. H2H is neutral with only 2 matches, so Over is the clear pick. |
|
| 18-05-2026 09:30 |
South Melbourne |
- |
Caroline Springs George Cross FC |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
South Melbourne averages 1.70 HT goals at home and concedes 1.10, while Caroline Springs averages 0.90 HT goals away and concedes 0.90, giving an expected 1st half total of 2.30, well above the 1.25 line. South Melbourne has gone Over 1.25 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70%), and Caroline Springs in 5 of 10 (50%), with no H2H contradicting. Structural factors (home early pressing, quality gap) and away team's high market mispricing (GL_5=1.85, accelerating) further support the Over. |
|
| 18-05-2026 10:00 |
FC Zorya Lugansk |
- |
Polissya Zhytomyr |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 2.85 (Zorya home avg 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded; Polissya away avg 1.8 scored, 0.9 conceded) exceeds 2.5 line by +0.35. Zorya's last 10 matches show 60% Over 2.5 (6/10), and Polissya's 50% (5/10) does not contradict. The shot-based match potential (6.65) also strongly supports Over. Bookmaker mispricing is low (home GL_5 0.35, away GL_5 1.30 mild), but quality gap (Polissya 3rd vs Zorya 8th) adds moderate Over signal. |
|
| 18-05-2026 12:30 |
Defensor Sporting Reserves |
- |
Albion FC Reserves |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
74% |
Full-time expected total of 2.80 goals (home avg 1.90 at home, away concede 1.50 away; away avg 1.00 away, home concede 1.20 at home) edges just above the 2.75 line. Defensor Sporting Reserves have 70% of recent matches Over (7/10), Albion FC Reserves 60% (6/10). Home scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 home games. Home GL_5 of 1.50 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with the Over side. Structured for goals with both teams needing points, supporting a low-scoring trend but Over signal prevails. |
|
| 18-05-2026 16:00 |
Puszcza Niepolomice |
- |
LKS Lodz |
Over 2.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected total goals from averages is 2.75 (1.60 home scored + 1.10 away conceded)/2 + (1.90 away scored + 0.90 home conceded)/2 = 2.75, above the 2.5 line. Both teams have 60% of their last 10 matches going Over 2.5, and the shot-based match potential (5.64) strongly favours goals. Away team's goal line mispricing (GL_5 1.50) adds further confidence for an Over outcome. |
|
| 18-05-2026 17:00 |
Djurgarden |
- |
Sirius |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 3.55 (Djurgarden avg 2.60 at home, Sirius concede 1.10 away; Sirius avg 2.50 away, Djurgarden concede 0.90 at home) exceeds the line of 2.75. Sirius had 5/5 away matches over 2.5 (totals 4,5,3,12,3) and conceded 2+ in 3 of those 5, while bookmaker mispricing is high (home GL_5 1.95, away GL_5 1.90) adding edge. H2H saw 10 goals in the last meeting, confirming the over trend. |
|
| 18-05-2026 17:00 |
Angelholm |
- |
Kristianstad FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time goals 3.05 (home avg 1.50, away avg 1.50, home conceded 1.70, away conceded 1.40) exceed the 2.75 line by 0.30. Away team conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 4 away matches (defensive fragility). Home team's goal line variance is 1.60 (accelerating mispricing), adding edge to Over. Likelihood data shows 65% over 2.5 goals. No H2H to contradict. |
|
| 18-05-2026 17:05 |
IK Oddevold |
- |
Orebro SK |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals of 3.25 (home avg 1.60 scored, 2.20 conceded vs away avg 1.40 scored, 1.30 conceded) far exceeds the 2.5 line. IK Oddevold have gone Over 2.5 in all 5 of their last league matches, and home GL_5 mispricing is accelerating at 1.85, supporting the Over. Despite Orebro's 40% Over rate, the structural gap and home momentum provide strong value. |
|
| 18-05-2026 17:30 |
AB Argir |
- |
Vikingur Gota |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
72% |
AB Argir has scored in the first half in 10 of their last 10 matches (100%), including all 4 home games. Expected first-half total (1.20) surpasses the line of 1.0, driven by home avg 0.80 scored and away conceded 0.30. H2H matches produced 3 and 1 first-half goals. Home team's GL_5 variance of 1.85 (accelerating from 1.25) signals persistent bookmaker mispricing aligning with Over. Despite Vikingur's poor first-half scoring away (3 of last 4 away without a 1st-half goal), AB Argir's consistent early output comfortably covers the line. |
|
| 18-05-2026 18:00 |
Montevideo Wanderers Reserves |
- |
Club Atletico Progreso Reserves |
|
65% |
Montevideo Wanderers Reserves sit top of the table with 21 points, 12 ahead of Progreso (12th). At home, they have won 3 of 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 2, with 3 of those wins covering the -0.5 line. Common opponents analysis shows both teams beat Colon FC, and H2H in September 2025 saw Wanderers win 1-0 away. Progreso's away record is decent (2 wins in 3), but the quality gap and home advantage give Wanderers the edge. |
|
| 18-05-2026 18:00 |
Racing Club de Montevideo Reserves |
- |
Torque Reserves |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals (Asian Goal Line) |
81% |
Expected total 3.10 goals from averages (Racing home 1.60 scored & 1.70 conceded, Torque away 1.40 scored & 1.50 conceded) exceeds the 2.75 line. Racing have gone Over 2.5 in 7/10 recent matches, Torque in 6/10. Bookmaker mispricing moderate for Racing (GL_5=1.70). Structural signal from Torque conceding 6.0 shots on target away, adding edge to Over. Confidence 81%. |
|
| 18-05-2026 18:45 |
Waterford FC |
- |
Drogheda United |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 3.25 (home avg 1.2 goals scored + away avg 1.8 conceded averaged with away avg 1.4 goals + home avg 2.1 conceded) exceeds line 2.75. Drogheda away record: 5/5 last away matches over, conceding 2+ in 4/5. Both teams show accelerating market mispricing (home GL_5 1.80, away GL_5 2.05). H2H has 3/4 unders but is outweighed by strong structural and variance signals. |
|
| 18-05-2026 19:15 |
HK Kopavogur |
- |
Njardvik |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total (3.70) exceeds the 3.0/3.5 line by 0.45 goals, calculated from home averaging 2.20 scored and 2.20 conceded at home, away averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded away. Home match history shows 6/10 matches with 4+ goals, and both H2H matches produced at least 3 goals. Bookmaker mispricing is severe: home GL_5 1.85 (strong, accelerating) and away GL_5 2.65 (severe, accelerating), both indicating the line underestimates goals. HK's strong home form (2-0-0, scoring 6 in 2 games) further supports the Over. |
|
| 18-05-2026 19:15 |
Fylkir Reykjavik |
- |
IR Reykjavik |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals FT = (2.90+2.40)/2 + (2.00+1.20)/2 = 4.25, well above the 3.0/3.5 line. Fylkir home over 3.5 in 5/7 (71%) and IR away over 3.5 in 4/5 (80%). IR away conceded 2+ in all 5 away matches (defensive fragility). Home GL_5 of 1.50 (moderate, accelerating) adds confidence. Strong structural and historical support for Over. |
|
| 18-05-2026 19:15 |
Throttur Reykjavik |
- |
Leiknir Reykjavik |
Over 3.25 Goals |
80% |
Expected total of 4.35 goals (home avg 2.60 at home + away avg conceded 2.40 away) well above the 3.25 line. Throttur have 70% of their last 10 home matches going over 3.25, and Leiknir concede 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches. The H2H recently ended 4-1 Throttur, further supporting an Over outcome. Bookmaker mispricing is low (GL_5 home 0.40, away 0.85), but structural quality gap and away defensive fragility provide strong Over edge. |
|
| 18-05-2026 19:15 |
Grotta Seltjarnarnes |
- |
Afturelding |
Under 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is only 1.05 goals (home avg 1.10 HT, away avg 0.10 HT, conceded averages 0.40 and 0.50). Both teams have strong Under HT history: Grotta 6/7 (85.7%) Under, Afturelding 7/8 (87.5%) Under. Afturelding has failed to score in the 1st half in all 4 recent away matches. Away team GL_5 of 2.20 indicates significant bookmaker mispricing aligned with Under direction. |
|
| 18-05-2026 21:30 |
Deportivo Maldonado |
- |
Danubio |
Over 2.5 Goals |
75% |
Deportivo Maldonado averages 1.50 goals at home and Danubio concedes 1.40 away, yielding an expected total of 2.55. Danubio's away matches have 80% (4/5) over 2.5 goals, and their defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away) combined with the quality gap (Maldonado 2nd, Danubio 11th) further support over. Home team's goal line mispricing (GL_5=1.25) aligns with the over direction. |
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