| 15-06-2026 12:00 |
Arba Minch |
- |
Shire Endaselassie FC |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
65% |
Expected 1st half total of 1.10 goals (Arba Minch home avg 0.50 scored, 0.90 conceded; Shire away avg 0.30 scored, 0.50 conceded) exceeds the 0.75 line. Arba Minch have seen Over in 7 of 8 recent matches with 1st half data (87.5%), while Shire have 5 of 9 (55.6%). Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 home 1.35, away 1.10), giving marginal edge. Structural context: both teams are low in the table and need points, supporting an open game. This combination yields a 65% confidence for Over 0.75 1st half goals. |
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| 15-06-2026 13:00 |
Guria Lanchkhuti |
- |
Iveria Khashuri |
Over 3.25 Goals |
76% |
Expected total from averages (home 2.40 + away conceded 2.17)/2 + (away 1.17 + home conceded 0.60)/2 = 3.17, just 0.08 below the 3.25 line, favoring Over per philosophy. Home team has 100% Over in their last 3 home matches (6-0,5-0,5-0), while away team has conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches, a structural fragility signal. Home team's GL_5 market pricing error of 1.70 confirms bookmaker underestimation of their goal involvement. Likelihood data supports with 65% probability of Over 2.5, enough to overcome the away team's low Over record (14%) in this context. |
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| 15-06-2026 13:30 |
FC Iberia 1999 II |
- |
Kolkheti |
Over 1.25 1st Half Goals |
66% |
Expected 1st half total of 1.30 (home avg 0.80 scored at home + away avg 0.80 conceded away averaged with away avg 0.60 scored away + home avg 0.40 conceded at home) exceeds the line of 1.25. Kolkheti have gone Over 1.25 1st half goals in all 5 of their last 5 away matches (100%), reflecting persistent defensive fragility in the first period. Combined with FC Iberia 1999 II's home attack averaging 0.80 1st half goals, the structural signal for Over is strong despite mixed home HT history. |
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| 15-06-2026 14:00 |
Eclair de Saa Women |
- |
Agai FC Women |
Over 2.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected total 2.96 (home 1.0+2.86=3.86/2 + away 0.86+1.20=2.06/2) exceeds 2.75 line. Away conceded 2+ in all 3 away matches (defensive fragility). H2H 3-3 supports Over. Away GL_5=1.85 indicates strong bookmaker mispricing. Away away record 66.7% Over 2.5 meets threshold. Confidence 71%. |
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| 15-06-2026 14:00 |
Dinamo Tbilisi II |
- |
Gardabani |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
80% |
1st half expected total 1.00 goals (home avg 0.30 scored + conceded 0.40, away avg 0.30 scored + conceded 1.00) is 0.25 below the 1.25 line. In last 5 home matches, Dinamo Tbilisi II had 1st half totals of 0,1,1,0,0 (all under), and Gardabani's last 5 away matches had 4 of 5 under (2,1,0,1,0). Additionally, away team failed to score in 1st half in 4 of last 5 away matches. Bookmaker mispricing is low (home GL_5 0.55, away GL_5 1.15), supporting the Under side. |
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| 15-06-2026 16:00 |
JK Nomme Kalju II |
- |
JK Nomme United II |
Over 4.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected total 4.35 (home avg 1.90 at home, away conceded 2.20 away, away scored 1.90 away, home conceded 2.70 at home) exceeds line of 4.0. Away team's away form: 66.7% of last 3 decisive away matches went over 4 goals. Structurally, away team has conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches (defensive fragility). Bookmaker mispricing is significant: home GL_5 1.75 (moderate), away GL_5 2.05 (strong and accelerating), aligning with Over direction. |
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| 15-06-2026 16:00 |
Vag FK |
- |
Stabaek 2 |
Over 3.75 Goals |
75% |
Expected total goals (4.65) computed from home avg 1.70 scored + away conceded 3.20 (away) and away avg 2.60 scored + home conceded 1.80 (home) strongly exceeds the bookmaker line of 3.75. Shot-based match potential of 8.85 confirms the Over signal. Away team Stabaek 2 has conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches (6-0, 3-2, 5-3), indicating defensive fragility. Market pricing error is severe: home GL_5=2.15 and away GL_5=2.80 (both >1.8) with away accelerating, adding further edge to Over. Despite Vag FK's home matches historically low-scoring (1/5 Over 3.75), the away team's consistent Over pattern (100% in last 3 away) and strong expected total overcome that. The 1st half line (Over 1.5) also shows a large gap (expected 2.40) but FT is preferred due to higher confidence from combined signals. |
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| 15-06-2026 16:00 |
Parnu JK Vaprus II |
- |
FC Levadia Tallinn U19 |
Over 4.5 Goals |
74% |
Expected total goals 4.80 (home avg 2.80 at home, away conceded 2.30 away; away avg 2.30 away, home conceded 2.20 home) exceeds the 4.5 line. Away team has 60% of last 10 matches over 4.5, home team scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 home matches. Away team's goal line mispricing is high (GL_5=2.45, accelerating), indicating bookmaker underestimation. H2H has 2 matches both under, treated neutral due to small sample. |
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| 15-06-2026 17:00 |
Ranheim 2 |
- |
Kvik Trondheim |
Over 4.0,4.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 4.55 goals (home avg 2.20 at home + away conceded 2.00 away, away avg 2.10 away + home conceded 2.80 at home) is above the line of 4.25. Ranheim 2's last 3 home matches all went Over (5-2, 5-3, 1-4), while Kvik Trondheim's away defence is fragile, conceding 2+ in 3 of last 5 away. Severe bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5=3.40, away GL_5=2.00) further supports Over. |
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| 15-06-2026 17:05 |
IFK Norrkoping |
- |
Varbergs BoIS FC |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
Expected 1st half goals of 1.25 exceed the line of 1.0, driven by Varbergs averaging 1.10 goals scored away in the first half and Norrkoping averaging 0.80 at home. Varbergs have gone over 1.0 in 4 of 5 away first halves (80%), and Norrkoping in 2 of 3 home first halves (67%). No H2H data or significant market mispricing (GL_5 1.15–1.25) alters the edge. |
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| 15-06-2026 19:15 |
UMF Selfoss |
- |
Throttur Vogar |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected full-time goals 3.55 (Selfoss home avg 2.6 + Throttur away conceded avg 1.6 /2 = 2.1, plus Throttur away scored avg 1.5 + Selfoss home conceded avg 1.4 /2 = 1.45) exceed the 3.25 line by 0.3. Match history shows 60% Over for both sides in their respective roles, and Throttur Vogar have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches, highlighting defensive fragility. Market pricing error is mild (away GL_5 1.4) but aligns with the Over direction, supporting a strong structural case. |
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| 16-06-2026 10:30 |
Rochedale Rovers |
- |
Moreton City Excelsior |
Over 9.5 Corners |
82% |
Expected corners total 11.0 (home avg 4.80, away avg 6.40) exceeds the 9.5 line by 1.5 corners. Rochedale's last 10 matches have 80% over 9.5 corners, Moreton City 60%, and their only H2H saw 12 corners. The quality gap (2nd vs 10th) and dominant away attack further support an Over bet, giving 82% confidence. |
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