| 04-09 16:00 |
Septemvri Sofia
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2.92 +0.92 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (0.80 + 1.80 + 0.75 + 2.50) / 2 = 2.92 Error: 2.92 - Goal line 2.00 = +0.92 |
5 4 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
122 103 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
0.80 | 1.80 0.75 | 2.50 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
9.25 | 6.11 13.33 | 5.00 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
7.40 | 11.00 10.00 | 12.50 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.20 | 5.40 3.25 | 6.50 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
65.40 | 63.40 75.00 | 82.75 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 04-09 16:00 |
Septemvri Sofia
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2.92 +0.67 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (0.80 + 1.80 + 0.75 + 2.50) / 2 = 2.92 Error: 2.92 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.67 |
5 4 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
122 103 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
0.80 | 1.80 0.75 | 2.50 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
9.25 | 6.11 13.33 | 5.00 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
7.40 | 11.00 10.00 | 12.50 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.20 | 5.40 3.25 | 6.50 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
65.40 | 63.40 75.00 | 82.75 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 04-09 18:15 |
Arda Kardzhali
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+1.24 +0.99 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 10.03 Home: 10.03 / ((6.70 + 6.00) / 2) = 1.58 Away: 10.03 / ((41.00 + 17.75) / 2) = 0.34 Diff: 1.58 - 0.34 = +1.24 Error: +1.24 + AH line -0.25 = +0.99 |
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2.30 +0.05 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.00 + 0.20 + 0.80 + 1.60) / 2 = 2.30 Error: 2.30 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.05 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
410 104 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.00 | 0.20 0.80 | 1.60 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
6.70 | 41.00 17.75 | 6.00 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
13.40 | 8.20 14.20 | 9.60 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
5.20 | 2.00 5.60 | 5.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
72.60 | 48.40 72.40 | 51.60 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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