| 27-05-2026 19:15 |
Throttur Reykjavik |
- |
Grotta Seltjarnarnes |
Over 3.5 Goals |
74% |
Expected total of 3.95 (home avg 2.4 scored at home + away avg 1.5 conceded away averaged with away avg 2.0 scored away + home avg 2.0 conceded at home) exceeds the 3.5 line by 0.45 goals. Home side Throttur Reykjavik (2nd in league) has a 60% record of Over 3.5 in their last 10 matches, and the quality gap against 9th-placed Grotta Seltjarnarnes supports an open game. Grotta’s away defensive record shows 2 of their last 4 away matches conceding 2+ goals, while bookmaker mispricing on the away team (GL_5 = 1.75, moderate) adds further edge for the Over. |
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| 27-05-2026 19:15 |
Grindavik |
- |
Afturelding |
Over 3.5 Goals |
74% |
Expected total goals 3.75 (home avg 1.30 + away conceded 1.80, away scored 2.20 + home conceded 2.20) exceeds the 3.5 line. Grindavik's home matches average 3.5 total goals and Afturelding's away matches have 60% Over 3.5 rate. Afturelding's GL_5 market pricing error of 2.45 (accelerating from 1.80 GL_10) signals persistent underestimation of goals in their games, while home defensive fragility (2.2 conceded per home game) and away attacking strength (2.2 scored away) further support an Over. |
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| 27-05-2026 19:15 |
Fylkir Reykjavik |
- |
Leiknir Reykjavik |
Over 3.0 Goals |
66% |
Expected total of 3.70 (home avg 2.5 + away conceded 2.5 over 2 plus away avg 1.6 + home conceded 0.8 over 2) exceeds the 3.0 line, and match potential of 3.36 supports Over. Fylkir's dominant home record (3-0-0, scored 2+ in each) and Leiknir's leaky away defence (conceding 2.5 per game) create a quality gap. Despite recent low-scoring history, the system defaults to Over when signals are mixed and the expected gap is material. |
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| 28-05-2026 00:30 |
SV Atlantico Deportivo |
- |
SV Deportivo Nacional |
Over 4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.26 goals vs line 4.0, computed from home avg 1.88 scored + away avg 1.90 conceded and away avg 3.10 scored + home avg 1.63 conceded. Deportivo Nacional's away matches show 75% (3/4) over 4.0, while both teams exhibit high market pricing error (home GL_5 2.15, away GL_5 1.85), pointing to consistent bookmaker underestimation of goals. Although H2H resulted in only 3 goals (under), the single match is insufficient to override the strong structural and variance signals favoring Over. |
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| 28-05-2026 01:00 |
El Paso Locomotive FC |
- |
Antelope Valley Alta |
1st Half Over 1.0,1.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected 1st half total of 1.75 goals (El Paso home HT average 1.20 + Antelope Valley away HT conceded 0.70, combined with away HT scoring 0.90 and home HT conceding 0.70) exceeds the line of 1.25. Home HT history shows 60% Over (6/10), away HT history 70% Over (7/10), and a significant quality gap (USL Championship vs League One) supports early attacking pressure. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (home GL_5 1.45), but structural factors strongly favor Over. |
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| 28-05-2026 01:00 |
Brittons Hill |
- |
Ellerton FC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 3.60 (home avg 1.90 + away avg conced 0.90 divided 2 plus away avg 3.10 + home conced 1.30 divided 2) exceeds the 3.0 line. Home team has 60% of last 5 home matches over 3.0, while away team has 100% of last 4 away matches over 3.0. Bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 = 1.55 for home) adds further edge, while both teams show strong attacking form. |
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| 28-05-2026 01:00 |
FC Panama Norte |
- |
AF Chilibre |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
74% |
Expected total 3.45 (home avg 1.6 at home + away concede 1.4 away averaged with away avg 2.2 away + home concede 1.7 home) exceeds the effective line of 3.25. Home team's last 4 home matches saw 3 over the line (75%), away team's last 5 away matches saw 3 over (60%), and the away side conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away trips, indicating defensive fragility. Combined with a shot-based expected goals of 6.54 strongly supporting Over, and mild market mispricing (home GL_5=1.20, away GL_5=1.10), the Over bet offers value. |
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| 28-05-2026 08:30 |
Ha Noi FC II |
- |
Da Nang II |
Over 1.0 1st Half Goals |
65% |
Ha Noi FC II averages 0.40 goals at home in the 1st half, and Da Nang II concedes 0.50 away, while Da Nang II scores 0.30 away and Ha Noi concedes 0.60 at home, giving an expected total of 0.90, just below the line of 1.0. Recent history strongly supports Over: Ha Noi has seen Over 1.0 in 4 of their last 5 home 1st halves (80%), and Da Nang in 2 of their last 3 away 1st halves (66.7%). With bookmaker mispricing moderate (home GL_5 1.65) but direction neutral, the Over-first philosophy defaults to Over given the close gap and strong historical alignment. |
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| 28-05-2026 12:00 |
FC Margveti 2006 |
- |
FC Iberia 1999 II |
Over 1.25 Goals 1st Half |
71% |
Expected 1st half total of 1.50 goals (home avg 0.70 scored at home, away avg 0.40 conceded away, away avg 0.80 scored away, home avg 1.10 conceded at home) exceeds the 1.25 line. Home team's 1st half match history shows 7/10 over this line (70%), and both teams have high early scoring (60% of home goals in 1st half, 58% of home conceded in 1st half), indicating structural Over bias. No H2H data to override. Bookmaker mispricing for full-time is moderate (home GL_5 1.50) but not directly applied to HT. |
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| 28-05-2026 12:00 |
FC Iberia 2010 |
- |
Iveria Khashuri |
Over 3.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected full-time goals total 3.87 (home concedes 3.7/game, away scores 1.17 away, away concedes 2.17) exceeds the 3.5 line, supported by home defense conceded 2+ in 80% of home matches. Market pricing error is severe for home team (GL_5=2.45), indicating systematic underestimation of goals, and the shot-based expected goals (4.84) further supports Over. |
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| 28-05-2026 15:00 |
JK Tallinna Kalev II |
- |
JK Tammeka Tartu II |
Over 4.0,4.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT goals 4.80 (home avg 1.60+away avg 3.30, conceded 2.70+2.00) exceed line 4.25 by +0.55. Away team (1st) has conceded 2+ in 3 of last 4 away matches, while home team (9th) concedes 2.7 per home game, creating strong Over structure. Bookmaker mispricing is severe: away GL_5=2.80 (accelerating) and home GL_5=1.70 (accelerating), both aligning with Over direction. H2H (3-2) also supports Over. |
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| 28-05-2026 15:30 |
FC Jazz |
- |
SalPa |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
69% |
Expected 1st half total 1.65 (home HT avg 0.30 + away conceded HT avg 0.60)/2 + (away HT avg 1.10 + home conceded HT avg 1.30)/2 exceeds the 1.25 line by 0.40. SalPa have strong 1st half scoring (1.10 away, 60% Over in last 5). FC Jazz concede 1.30 at home in 1st half. Severe bookmaker mispricing on SalPa (GL_5=3.0, accelerating) adds edge for Over. Despite FC Jazz's poor recent 1st half history, the gap and structural signals favour Over, aligning with over-first philosophy. |
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| 28-05-2026 15:30 |
Chrobry Glogow |
- |
LKS Lodz |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals total 3.05 (Chrobry avg 1.30 at home, LKS avg 2.10 away; combined defensively 1.30 and 1.40 conceded). Chrobry's home record shows 80% (4 of 5) Over 2.5, and all 3 head-to-head matches went Over. Both teams have accelerating market mispricing (GL_5 home 1.75, away 1.55), adding edge to the Over despite moderate lines. The playoff context also suggests an open attacking game. |
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| 28-05-2026 16:00 |
Tartu JK Welco |
- |
JK Nomme Kalju II |
Over 4.0 Goals |
76% |
Tartu JK Welco average 2.6 goals at home and JK Nomme Kalju II concede 2.3 away, giving an expected total of 4.05 goals. Welco have gone Over 4 goals in all 4 home matches this season, while Kalju II have conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 away games. Market mispricing is high (home GL_5 2.35, accelerating), further supporting the Over despite the tight line. |
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| 28-05-2026 16:00 |
FC Levadia Tallinn U21 |
- |
FC Elva |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total (home avg scored at home 1.80 + away avg conceded away 1.90)/2 + (away avg scored away 1.80 + home avg conceded at home 2.50)/2 = 4.00 goals vs line 3.5. Home team conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 home matches (defensive fragility), away team conceded 2+ in 3 of last 4 away matches. Both teams show 70%+ Over in recent matches, and H2H (2/3 Over) supports. Bookmaker mispricing is elevated (home GL_5 1.65, away GL_5 1.85, both accelerating), indicating goals are structurally underestimated. |
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| 28-05-2026 16:00 |
JK Viljandi Tulevik |
- |
Parnu JK Vaprus II |
Over 4.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 5.2 (home avg 2.9 at home + away conceded 2.2 away) vs line 4.5 gives 0.7 goal gap. Away team's away matches show 66.7% Over (4/6), H2H both Over. Structural signals: away conceded 2+ in 3/5 away, promotion battle. Bookmaker mispricing severe: home GL_5 2.65, away GL_5 2.10, both accelerating. |
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| 28-05-2026 16:00 |
JK Trans Narva II |
- |
Johvi FC Phoenix |
Over 4.0,4.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.65 goals (home 2.40 scored, away 2.40 conceded) exceeds the 4.25 line; home home matches have 75% Over 4.5 (3/4) and H2H 75% Over (3/4). Both teams show strong bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 1.85, away GL_5 2.00), and recent form (home scored 2+ in last 3 home games) further supports an Over outcome. |
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| 28-05-2026 16:00 |
Puskas FC Women |
- |
Ferencvarosi TC Women |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.80 based on home avg 3.60 and away avg 4.20 goals. Home 7/10 (70%) and away 6/10 (60%) matches went over 3.0, with H2H at 3/4 (75%). Severe bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 3.55, away GL_5 3.05, both accelerating) adds significant edge. Strong attacking records and weak defences confirm Over value. |
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| 28-05-2026 17:00 |
FCM Traiskirchen |
- |
Neusiedl |
Over 3.75 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 3.70 from (1.90+2.70)/2+(1.30+1.50)/2 and match potential 6.19 strongly support Over. Away Neusiedl conceded 2+ goals in 4/5 away matches (defensive fragility) and face quality gap (6th vs 15th). Away history 60% Over line, home 50% – both at least 50%. Away GL_5=1.55 signals moderate mispricing but direction ambiguous as expected total slightly below line. Overall confidence 68%. |
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| 28-05-2026 17:30 |
Assyriska Föreningen |
- |
Vasalunds IF |
Over 3.25 Goals |
79% |
Expected total 3.70 goals (home avg 1.40, away avg 2.10, and each conceding ~2.10/1.80) exceeds the 3.25 line. Vasalunds have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 away matches (80% structural weakness), while Assyriska's severe market mispricing (GL_5: 2.65) signals the bookmaker consistently underestimates goal totals in their games. H2H is neutral, but the combination of form and variance supports an Over bet. |
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| 28-05-2026 18:45 |
Lucan United |
- |
Kilbarrack Utd |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total goals 3.05 (Lucan 1.9 at home + Kilbarrack 0.9 conceded) exceeds the 2.75 line, with home match history showing 80% Over and away 60% Over. Lucan's GL_5 mispricing of 1.90 (strong, accelerating) adds further confidence in the Over, supported by likelihood of 55% for Over 2.5. |
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