The Comeback and Winning Factor
The Comeback Factor
What is it? The Comeback Factor measures how effectively a team can recover after falling behind in a match. It tells you how often a team can bounce back by scoring the next goal after the other team has taken the lead.
How does it work?
- Every time a team falls behind, they have an opportunity to make a comeback by scoring the next goal.
- The Comeback Factor is the percentage of times the team successfully scores that next goal out of the total opportunities they had.
Example:
- If a team is losing 0-1 and manages to score the next goal to make it 1-1, that’s a successful comeback.
- If they then fall behind again 1-2 but equalize to 2-2, that’s another successful comeback.
- If they have 5 such opportunities in a match and succeed 3 times, their Comeback Factor would be 60%.
Example 1:
- Home team scores to make it 1-0.
- Comeback Opportunity 1: The away team has a chance to equalize.
- Result: The away team does not score next (home team scores instead), so this is a failed comeback.
Score: 0/1
- Home team scores to make it 2-0.
- Comeback Opportunity 2: The away team now has another chance to start a comeback.
- Result: The away team does not score next (home team scores again), so this is another failed comeback.
Score: 0/2
- Home team scores to make it 3-0.
- Comeback Opportunity 3: The away team now has a chance to begin a comeback from 3-0.
- Result: The away team scores to make it 3-1, so this is a successful comeback.
Score: 1/3
- Away team scores to make it 3-1.
- Comeback Opportunity 4: The away team can continue their comeback.
- Result: The away team scores to make it 3-2, so this is another successful comeback.
Score: 2/4
- Away team scores to make it 3-2.
- Comeback Opportunity 5: The away team can equalize to make it 3-3.
- Result: The away team scores to make it 3-3, so this is another successful comeback.
Score: 3/5
- Home team scores to make it 4-3.
- No further comeback opportunity in this example as the game ends.
Calculation:
- Total Comeback Opportunities: 5 (after each home team goal, the away team had an opportunity to come back).
- Successful Comebacks: 3 (away team successfully came back three times).
Comeback Factor=(3/5)×100=60%
Explanation: The away team successfully came back three times out of five opportunities, resulting in a 60% Comeback Factor.
Example 2:
- Home team scores to make it 1-0.
- Comeback Opportunity 1: The away team now has a chance to equalize.
- Result: The away team scores to make it 1-1, so this is a successful comeback.
Score: 1/1
- Away team scores to make it 1-1.
- No further comeback opportunity here since the away team is no longer trailing.
- Away team scores to make it 1-2.
- No further comeback opportunity here since the away team is leading.
- Away team scores to make it 1-3.
- No further comeback opportunity here since the away team is leading.
Calculation:
- Total Comeback Opportunities: 1 (the opportunity to equalize after being down 1-0).
- Successful Comebacks: 1 (the away team successfully equalized after trailing).
Comeback Factor=(1/1)×100=100%
Explanation: The away team successfully came back on their only opportunity, resulting in a 100% Comeback Factor.
Winning Factor
What is it? The Winning Factor shows how well a team can maintain or extend their lead after going ahead in a match. It’s a measure of their ability to stay in control once they’ve scored the first goal.
How does it work?
- Every time a team takes the lead, they have an opportunity to either maintain or extend that lead by scoring the next goal.
- The Winning Factor is the percentage of times the team successfully scores the next goal after taking the lead.
Example:
- If a team scores to go up 1-0 and then scores again to make it 2-0, that’s a successful win extension.
- If they lead 2-0 but the other team scores next to make it 2-1, that’s a failed winning opportunity.
- If they have 3 such opportunities in a match and succeed 2 times, their Winning Factor would be 66.67%.
Example 1:
- Away team scores to make it 0-1.
- Winning Opportunity 1: The away team now has a chance to extend their lead.
- Result: The away team scores next to make it 0-2, so this is a successful winning opportunity.
Score: 1/1
- Away team scores to make it 0-2.
- Winning Opportunity 2: The away team now has another chance to extend their lead.
- Result: The home team scores next to make it 1-2, so this is a failed winning opportunity.
Score: 1/2
- Home team scores to make it 1-2.
- No winning opportunity for the away team since they are still leading but did not score next.
- Home team scores to make it 2-2.
- No winning opportunity for the away team since they have lost their lead.
- Away team scores to make it 3-2.
- Winning Opportunity 3: The away team has a chance to maintain this new lead.
- No further goals in this scenario, so the opportunity would be considered successful.
Calculation:
- Total Winning Opportunities: 3 (initial lead at 0-1, 0-2, and after 2-2 when they regained the lead).
- Successful Wins: 2 (extending the lead to 0-2 and then scoring the final goal to make it 3-2).
Winning Factor=(2/3)×100=66.67%
Explanation: The away team successfully extended their lead or regained it in two out of three opportunities, resulting in a 66.67% Winning Factor.
Example 2:
- Home team scores to make it 1-0.
- Winning Opportunity 1: The home team now has a chance to extend their lead.
- Result: The home team scores next to make it 2-0, so this is a successful winning opportunity.
Score: 1/1
- Home team scores to make it 2-0.
- Winning Opportunity 2: The home team now has another chance to extend their lead.
- Result: The home team scores next to make it 3-0, so this is another successful winning opportunity.
Score: 2/2
- Home team scores to make it 3-0.
- No further winning opportunity in this scenario since no additional goals were scored.
Calculation:
- Total Winning Opportunities: 2 (the opportunities to extend the lead after each goal).
- Successful Wins: 2 (the home team successfully extended their lead twice).
Winning Factor=(2/2)×100=100%
Explanation: The home team successfully extended their lead on both opportunities, resulting in a 100% Winning Factor.
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