| 16-05-2026 22:00 |
Richmond Kickers |
- |
Charleston Battery |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
78% |
Richmond concede 1.10 at home and Charleston score 1.60 away, producing an expected total of 2.70 goals, 0.45 above the 2.25 line. Charleston have gone over 2.5 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70%) and conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away, exposing defensive fragility. The quality gap from the higher-division Charleston further supports an open match with goals. |
|
| 16-05-2026 23:30 |
Fort Wayne FC |
- |
Indy Eleven |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 2.80 goals (home avg 1.10 + away conceded away 1.30)/2 + (away avg 1.70 + home conceded 1.50)/2 exceeds the 2.5 line. Indy Eleven show 80% (8/10) of recent matches Over 2.5, while Fort Wayne FC have 57% (4/7). No H2H data available. Market pricing error is low (GL_5 0.95 for both teams), and no structural defensive fragility is apparent. The combination of expected total above the line and strong away history supports Over 2.5. |
|
| 17-05-2026 00:30 |
Corpus Christi FC |
- |
Tulsa |
Over 8.5 Asian Corners |
72% |
Expected total corners computed as (Corpus Christi avg corners at home 3.90 + Tulsa avg corners conceded away 3.40)/2 + (Tulsa avg corners away 5.30 + Corpus Christi avg corners conceded at home 5.60)/2 = 9.10, exceeding the 8.5 line by 0.6. Away team Tulsa shows severe bookmaker mispricing on corners (variance_ac_5 = 3.50, over 2.5 threshold), indicating consistent underpricing. The quality gap (Corpus Christi bottom of USL League One vs Tulsa in higher division) and Corpus Christi conceding 5.6 corners at home further support an Over outcome. |
|
| 17-05-2026 00:30 |
SV Dakota |
- |
SV Sporting Aruba |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.30 goals (home avg 3.50 scored at home + away avg conceded 1.80 away, plus away avg 2.00 scored away + home avg conceded 1.30 at home, averaged) exceeds the 3.5 line by 0.80 goals. Both teams show strong Over history: Dakota 62% (5/8) and Sporting Aruba 60% (6/10) of recent matches went Over 3.5. Home team's market mispricing is severe (GL_5 = 2.75, accelerating from GL_10 = 2.13), indicating the bookmaker consistently underestimates Dakota's total goals. Structural edge: Dakota averages 3.5 goals at home and has scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 overall, while Sporting's matches frequently produce high totals (4+ goals in 6 of last 10). Over 3.5 offers strong value at 2.00. |
|
| 17-05-2026 01:00 |
Colorado Switchbacks FC |
- |
New Mexico United |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.30 goals (home avg 1.90 + away conceded avg 1.80 averaged with away avg 1.50 + home conceded avg 1.40) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.55. Colorado's home matches are 60% Over, New Mexico's away matches are 80% Over, and H2H is 75% Over (4 matches, 3 Over). Colorado's recent home form is surging (scored 2+ in last 3 home). Bookmaker mispricing on Colorado is high and accelerating (GL_5 2.10 > GL_10 1.60), adding edge to Over. |
|
| 17-05-2026 01:00 |
Diriangen |
- |
Real Esteli |
Diriangen -0.25 Asian Handicap |
75% |
Diriangen's strong home form (6-2-1 Clausura, 20 GF 7 GA) and recent AH record (4-1-0 last 5) support covering -0.25 against a Real Esteli side that has lost both recent away H2H matches at this venue (1-0 defeat) and shows weaker away AH form (2-1-2 last 5). Standings gap is narrow (39 vs 37 pts) but home advantage and common opponent results favour Diriangen. Bookmaker mispricing is not a major factor here (home GL_5 1.95 but direction aligns with home win, adding marginal confidence). |
|
| 17-05-2026 01:00 |
CD Luis Angel Firpo |
- |
CD Aguila |
Under 2.25 Goals |
75% |
Expected total of 2.30 goals (Firpo home 1.50 + 0.90 conceded, Aguila away 1.30 + 0.90 conceded) sits just above the 2.25 line, but both teams have gone Under in all of their last 4 roles (Firpo at home 0/4 Over, Aguila away 0/4 Over). Head-to-head also shows 3/4 Unders. Market mispricing is low (GL_5 home 0.50, away 0.80), confirming no edge for Over. These factors strongly support an Under bet at 2.00 odds. |
|
| 17-05-2026 03:00 |
Broadmeadow Magic |
- |
Edgeworth Eagles |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.15 goals (home 3.10 at home, away 2.30 away) well above line 2.75. Broadmeadow (80% over last 10) and Edgeworth (90% over last 10) both show strong over history. Away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away) and home GL_5 1.85 accelerating mispricing add edge. H2H under trend (2 matches) is neutral due to small sample. Full-time Over offers stronger evidence than 1st half Over. |
|
| 17-05-2026 03:00 |
Bula |
- |
Vanuatu United |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total of 2.70 goals (Bula's 1.00 scored at home, 1.40 conceded; Vanuatu United's 1.60 scored away, 1.40 conceded) exceeds the 2.0,2.5 line. Vanuatu United have gone over this line in 3 of 4 away matches (75%) and conceded 2+ goals in 3 of those 4 away games, indicating defensive fragility. Away team GL_5 variance of 1.85 (strong mispricing) further supports an Over bet. |
|
| 17-05-2026 04:40 |
Bulls FC Academy Women |
- |
Manly Utd Women |
|
67% |
Bulls FC Academy Women have covered a -0.75 handicap in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and 6 of their last 9 (67%), with a common opponent (Sydney Olympic FC Women) also supporting the line. Manly Utd Women cover +0.75 at only 71% over 7 matches but lack consistency away. Goal line and corner markets fail qualification due to opposing team history below 50% threshold. |
|
| 17-05-2026 05:00 |
Newcastle Olympic FC |
- |
Weston Workers FC |
Over 1.0,1.5 (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.85 (home avg 0.9 scored + 0.9 conceded, away avg 1.1 scored + 0.8 conceded) vs line 1.25, a gap of 0.6 goals. Away team has 60% of last 10 matches going over the HT line and a perfect away record, while Newcastle Olympic concede early in 35% of first 30 minutes. Structural quality gap (2nd vs 8th) and strong bookmaker mispricing on home team (GL_5 2.00, accelerating) further support the Over. H2H results (5, 6 total goals) align despite small sample. |
|
| 17-05-2026 05:00 |
Macarthur Rams Women |
- |
Northern Tigers FC Women |
Over 1.0,1.5 Goals 1st Half |
76% |
Expected 1st half goals (1.60) exceed the line of 1.25 by +0.35, driven by Northern Tigers' strong away 1st half scoring (1.1 avg) and Macarthur's weak 1st half defense (concede 1.2 at home). Northern Tigers have gone Over in 3 of 5 recent 1st halves (60%), and Macarthur's home GL_5 variance of 1.80 (moderate, accelerating) signals bookmaker mispricing on the Over side. The quality gap (away team's 1.8 avg total goals vs home's 1.1) supports early pressure. Likelihood for Over 1.5 HT is 55%. |
|
| 17-05-2026 05:00 |
Mokpo City |
- |
Gyeongju HNP |
Over 2.25 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 2.90 goals (home avg 0.90 at home, away concede 1.70 away; away avg 1.80 away, home concede 1.40 at home) exceeds line 2.25. Gyeongju HNP conceded 2+ goals in all 3 away matches this season, indicating defensive fragility. Gyeongju’s GL_5 of 1.70 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing (accelerating from GL_10 1.55), adding edge to Over. Away match history shows 3/3 Over. Combined signals yield 76% confidence. |
|
| 17-05-2026 05:00 |
Maitland FC Women |
- |
Lake Macquarie Women |
Under 5.0 Goals |
76% |
Maitland FC Women average 4.0 goals at home and concede 0.6, while Lake Macquarie average 2.0 goals conceded away and score 2.2 away, giving an expected total of 4.4 goals, below the line of 5.0. In their last 5 matches, Lake Macquarie’s away games have gone Under 5.0 in 7 of 9 (77.8%), and the last two H2H matches both ended with under 5 goals (0-4 and 0-1). Home team Maitland has a severe market pricing error (GL_5 = 2.60, accelerating), indicating the bookmaker consistently misprices their matches, and with the expected total below the line, this mispricing supports the Under. Additionally, Lake Macquarie has a clear scoring drought away, having scored only 2 goals in their last 6 away matches, further supporting a low-scoring match. |
|
| 17-05-2026 05:00 |
Kingborough Lions |
- |
South Hobart |
Over 4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 4.30 goals exceeds the line of 4.0, supported by South Hobart's 71% Over record in recent matches and a 3/3 H2H Over trend. Home side Kingborough Lions have scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home games, while away GL_5 of 2.70 indicates significant bookmaker mispricing accelerating toward Over. |
|
| 17-05-2026 06:00 |
Pyeongtaek Citizen FC |
- |
Geoje Citizen FC |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals (Asian Goal Line) |
82% |
Expected full-time goals (3.70) exceed the 3.25 line by 0.45, driven by home defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in all 4 recent home matches) and away team's strong scoring (2.10 avg away). Away team's match history shows 60% over the line (6/10). Both teams' GL_5 errors exceed 1.8 (home 2.00, away 1.95), indicating severe bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. Confidence capped at 82% per standard ceiling. |
|
| 17-05-2026 07:00 |
Adelaide Olympic |
- |
Cumberland United |
Over 9.0 Asian Corners |
72% |
Expected total corners 10.15 (home avg 5.1, conceded 4.7; away avg 4.7, conceded 5.8) exceeds line of 9.0 by 1.15. Adelaide Olympic's corners over 9 in 6 of last 10 matches, Cumberland United's corners over 9 in 6 of last 10 matches, both at 60%. The single H2H had only 7 corners but sample too small to override. Structural signals neutral, but gap and consistent history support Over. |
|
| 17-05-2026 07:00 |
Perth Redstar FC Women |
- |
Subiaco AFC Women |
Over 8.5 Asian Corners |
75% |
Home Perth Redstar averages 5.8 corners per home game and has gone over 8.5 in all 4 recent home matches (4/4, 100%). Expected total corners is 8.65 (5.8+3.2/2 + 4.4+3.9/2), just above the 8.5 line. H2H corners were 12 and 9, both over 8.5, confirming the pattern. Away Subiaco's corner history is weak but the home corner dominance provides strong structural support, with moderate bookmaker mispricing (home AC_5 2.8, away AC_5 3.1). |
|
| 17-05-2026 07:30 |
Hwaseong FC |
- |
Busan I Park |
Busan I Park -0.25 Asian Handicap |
75% |
Busan I Park are 1st in the league (28 pts) while Hwaseong are 6th (16 pts), a 12-point gap. Busan cover the -0.25 handicap in 83% of recent away matches (5/6, including halves) and have strong common opponent results (both beat Seoul E-Land and Ansan). Hwaseong's recent AH home form is also strong but the quality disparity and Busan's attacking potency (2.1 away goals per game) favor the away side. |
|
| 17-05-2026 13:30 |
Dynamo Dresden |
- |
Holstein Kiel |
Under 10.5 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners of 9.65 is 0.85 below the 10.5 line, while both Dresden (80% home matches under) and Holstein Kiel (80% away matches under) show 70%+ under history. Bookmaker mispricing is severe for Kiel (GL_5 2.80) and moderate for Dresden (GL_5 1.80), both aligning with the under direction. |
|
| 17-05-2026 13:30 |
Hradec Kralove Women |
- |
Pardubice Women |
Over 3.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected total goals 4.10 (home avg 3.00 at home + away avg 2.10 conceded away) vs line 3.5, a gap of 0.6 goals. Both teams show accelerating market mispricing (GL_5 1.8 for each), indicating the bookmaker consistently underestimates goal totals in their matches. Likelihood data gives 60% for Over 3.5, and the shot-based match potential (4.24) also supports the Over. Despite recent match history being mixed, the structural edge from bookmaker error and expected total above the line justify this pick. |
|
| 17-05-2026 14:00 |
HPS Women |
- |
HJK Women |
Under 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.20, below the line of 1.25. HPS Women have gone Under the 1st half line in 3 of 4 home matches (75%), while HJK Women have gone Under in all 3 away matches (100%). Both teams consistently fail to score in the first half (HPS failed to score in 3 of 4 home 1Hs, HJK failed in all 3 away 1Hs), reinforcing the Under pattern. |
|
| 17-05-2026 14:00 |
BK Olympic |
- |
Atvidabergs FF |
Over 9.5 Asian Corners |
78% |
Expected total corners (10.25) exceeds likely line of 9.5, driven by BK Olympic averaging 4.30 corners at home and Atvidabergs conceding 6.10 away. BK Olympic's last 3 home matches all went over 9.5 (15, 11, 10 corners), and Atvidabergs covered 2 of 3 away (15, 10). No H2H data, but structural corner patterns and mild market mispricing (home GL_5 1.10) support the Over. |
|
| 17-05-2026 14:00 |
FK Auda |
- |
RFS |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.85 goals (Auda home HT avg 1.10 scored + 0.80 conceded, RFS away HT avg 1.20 scored + 0.60 conceded) vs line 1.0, a gap of +0.85. Auda's last 10 matches have 60% over 1.0 HT goals, and RFS's GL_5 of 2.50 indicates severe bookmaker mispricing on goal lines, further supporting an Over. Despite mixed away HT history, the strong expected total and mispricing edge make Over 1.0 HT the best value. |
|
| 17-05-2026 14:00 |
Parnu JK Vaprus II |
- |
JK Trans Narva II |
Over 4.25 Goals |
74% |
Expected total 4.45 (home 2.60 scored, 2.10 conceded at home; away 2.80 scored, 1.40 conceded away) exceeds the 4.25 line. Bookmaker mispricing is severe: both teams have GL_5 values of 2.65 (home) and 2.40 (away), accelerating from GL_10 and pointing to systematic underestimation of goals. The single H2H match also produced 5 goals, reinforcing the Over despite mixed per-team history. |
|
| 17-05-2026 14:00 |
Mamelodi Sundowns |
- |
FAR Rabat |
Over 0.75 1st Half Goals |
78% |
Expected 1st half goals: (1.10+0.40)/2 + (0.40+0.40)/2 = 1.15, exceeding the 0.75 line by 0.40. Mamelodi Sundowns have seen Over 0.75 1st half in all 5 home matches (100%), while FAR Rabat away 1st half is 40% but Mamelodi's dominant early scoring (90% score in 1st half) overrides. Mamelodi's severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=2.65, accelerating) further supports a 1st half over bet. Structural edge from home dominance and quality gap. |
|
| 17-05-2026 14:30 |
Vasteras SK |
- |
AIK |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals of 3.15 (using home avg 1.20, away conceded 1.40, away scored 1.80, home conceded 1.90) comfortably exceeds the 2.5 line. Recent match history supports the Over with Vasteras 60% and AIK 70% of matches surpassing 2.5 goals, while AIK's away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away games) adds structural strength. Home team's moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.50) further reinforces the value. |
|
| 17-05-2026 15:00 |
Godolloi SK |
- |
Nyiregyhaza II |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 3.95 goals based on home scoring 1.90 and away scoring 3.40 at home, with home conceding 1.10 and away conceding 1.50 away. Home has 2/3 home matches over 3.25, away has 3/4 away matches over 3.25. Shot-based match potential is 8.34, well above the line. Bookmaker mispricing is severe: home GL_5 1.85 (strong) and away GL_5 3.50 (severe, accelerating), both supporting Over. |
|
| 17-05-2026 15:00 |
IFK Varnamo |
- |
Norrby IF |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals is 3.40 (home avg 1.50 at home + away avg 1.70 away, combined with defensive conceding rates) vs line 2.5, a gap of 0.90. Varnamo's last 10 matches saw 80% go over 2.5, while Norrby are winless on the road (0 away wins, 4 draws in 6). Bookmaker mispricing is severe for Varnamo (GL_5=2.00, accelerating) and moderate for Norrby (GL_5=1.50), both signaling underestimation of goals. Both teams are in the relegation zone (12th vs 14th, 3-point gap), likely pushing for an open game. |
|
| 17-05-2026 15:00 |
Csepel FC |
- |
Gyulai Termal |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 3.50 (home 2.40 at home + away 1.00 conceded away) heavily exceeds the 2.75 line. Home team 7/10 and away team 6/7 recent matches went Over 2.5. Home GL_5 of 2.20 indicates strong bookmaker mispricing favoring Overs. Only one H2H went Under, but sample too small to override. |
|
| 17-05-2026 15:00 |
Komarom VSE |
- |
Györi ETO II |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.55 (home avg 2.1 scored at home + away avg 2.1 conceded away, away avg 1.6 scored away + home avg 1.3 conceded at home) exceeds 3.0 line by 0.55 goals. Away team conceded 2+ in 7 of last 9 away matches (structural Over signal). Bookmaker mispricing is severe (home GL_5 2.60 accelerating, away GL_5 1.65 moderate), adding edge to Over. H2H supports Over (3-2 total 5). Though home own recent matches show only 20% Over 3.0, the over-first approach and strong variance override this mixed signal. |
|
| 17-05-2026 15:00 |
ZNK Agram Women |
- |
NK Medimurje Cakovec Women |
Over 4.0 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 3.55 from averages (home 2.10 scored at home, away 2.00 conceded away; away 1.70 scored away, home 1.30 conceded at home) is below the 4.0 line, but H2H shows 4/4 matches Over 4 (including 5-0, 4-2, 5-1, 6-1), away team has 75% Over 4 in recent away matches, and structural signal of away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in all last 5 away). Bookmaker mispricing moderate (home GL_5 1.65) but direction does not add edge. Confidence 73%. |
|
| 17-05-2026 15:30 |
Southend |
- |
Wealdstone |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total (3.35) derived from Southend's home scoring (2.40) and Wealdstone's away conceding (1.50) versus Wealdstone's away scoring (1.60) and Southend's home conceding (1.20) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.6 goals. Southend's last 4 home matches produced 3+ goals in 3 (75% Over) and Wealdstone's last 4 away matches produced 3+ goals in 3 (75% Over), while H2H has 2 of 3 matches Over (66.7%). Structural signal: Wealdstone conceded 2+ in all 4 recent away matches (defensive fragility). Bookmaker mispricing is severe for Southend (GL_5=2.55, accelerating) strongly supporting Over. |
|
| 17-05-2026 16:00 |
FK Liepaja |
- |
BFC Daugavpils |
Under 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.95 goals (Liepaja 0.40 HT at home, Daugavpils 0.30 HT away), well below the 1.25 line. Home team's last 4 home matches all had exactly 1 first-half goal (0% over 1.25), and away team's last 4 away matches saw just 1 over (25% over). Away team failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 4 away games, reinforcing the under. H2H first-half data is unavailable, but the strong historical low-scoring patterns from both sides provide two structural reasons for an under. |
|
| 17-05-2026 16:00 |
SC Sopron |
- |
Dorogi FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
74% |
Expected total goals 3.05 from averages (Sopron home 1.50 scored/2.00 conceded, Dorogi away 1.40 scored/1.20 conceded) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.30. Sopron's recent matches show 62.5% Over (5/8), and a structural quality gap (Dorogi 3rd vs Sopron 13th) plus home defensive fragility (conceding 2.00 per game) support Over. Strong bookmaker mispricing on Sopron (GL_5 2.05, accelerating) adds further edge. The 1st half signal is weaker (expected 1.20 below the 1.25 line), so full-time Over is preferred. |
|
| 17-05-2026 16:00 |
Tartu JK Welco |
- |
FC Flora Tallinn II |
Over 3.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.30 goals (home 2.60 + away conceded 1.90 averaged with away 2.70 + home conceded 1.40) well above 3.75 line. Home team 3/3 at home Over, away 2/3 away Over. Structural: away conceded 2+ in all 3 away matches. Market pricing error high (GL_5=1.90) for home, accelerating, indicating line underestimates goals. Likelihood 85% Over 2.5 supports. |
|
| 17-05-2026 16:00 |
VST Volkermarkt |
- |
SVG Bleiburg |
Over 3.25 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 3.60 from home avg 2.20 scored at home and away avg 1.40 conceded away, exceeding the 3.25 line. VST Volkermarkt scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home matches, and H2H results (6 and 10 total goals) both went Over. Home match history shows 2/3 Over (67%) and away team's sole away match went Over. Away goal line variance (GL_5=1.70) indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. Structural form surge and league context support high-scoring match. |
|
| 17-05-2026 16:00 |
Samgurali |
- |
FC Spaeri |
Over 2.75 Goals |
80% |
Expected total 3.05 goals (home avg 1.30 at home, away conceded 1.20 away, away avg 1.50 away, home conceded 2.10 at home) exceeds line 2.75. Home team's last 5 home matches: 3/5 (60%) Over 2.75 and away team's last 4 away matches: 3/4 (75%) Over. H2H had 5 goals. Market pricing error: home GL_5 of 1.65 (moderate, accelerating) adds edge. Likelihood also supports Over at 65%. |
|
| 17-05-2026 16:00 |
Louletano DC |
- |
AT Malveira |
Asian Handicap Louletano DC -0.5 |
67% |
Standings show Louletano (4 pts) ahead of Malveira (1 pt) in Promotion Round. AH record: Louletano 3-2 last 5, 7-2 last 10; Malveira 2-3 last 5. Common opponents (Alverca B, GD Lagoa, Moncarapachense) all favour Louletano. Malveira failed to score in 3 of last 5 away matches, weakening their attack. H2H is mixed but home side won 1 of 3 by a single goal. Confidence based on 2 of 3 supporting signals (standings gap, common opponents) at 67%. |
|
| 17-05-2026 17:00 |
Leixoes |
- |
Lusitania Lourosa |
Leixoes -0.25 Asian Handicap |
72% |
Leixoes (7th, 47 pts) host Lusitania (10th, 43 pts). Leixoes have covered -0.25 in 4 of last 5 matches (80%) and hold a 70% AH win rate over 10 games. Against 8 common opponents, Leixoes outperformed Lusitania (5-1-2 vs 2-3-3). The standings gap and strong AH record support this handicap. |
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